The national election results of 2019 majorly depends on the voters’ share in Uttar Pradesh. The battleground state is home to 80 out of 543 Lok Sabha constituencies that is enough to make or break a government.
It is clear that the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is having a hard time replicating its 2014 performance in U.P. in 2019. Anti-incumbency caused by a combination of economic factors and the Opposition on the ground propelled by the mahagathbandhan — alliance of the Samajwadi Party (SP), Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) and Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD) — has created an unexpected new political dynamic. This alliance has been formed with an explicit anti-BJP focus and is likely to have a significant impact on the outcome of the 2019 election.
There are majorly two issues looked upon to gauge the election results. These are: Hindu voter consolidation and caste mobilization. These issues can also serve as a lens to track the shifts in the State’s politics more broadly.
UP – The original battleground
Uttar Pradesh has always been a native to Hindutva which has been captivated amid the BJP’s key election issues and as a future to a Hindu state. In the shifting sands of U.P. politics, Hindu nationalism has certainly gained primacy in recent decades but this too will change.
BJP has focused on Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s muscular leadership, national security and Hindu-Muslim divisions to woo the UP voters. In 2014, the BJP was an outsider; in 2019, it is the incumbent at both the State and national levels, making an anti-establishment campaign untenable.
Reasons for disappointment in voters
Though, it is difficult to overlook Modi’s popularity among the upper castes, youth and non-Yadav backward castes who want him back as Prime Minister. Mr. Modi had promised much on the development front to U.P. but there is disappointment about how little he has delivered. Big cities such as Lucknow, Varanasi and Allahabad have experienced economic expansion even as the older parts of these cities and peripheries are stagnating. Driven by real estate development, economic expansion basically means widening of roads (it was aptly described as ‘Sadak Chaap vikas’, or superficial development, by someone in Allahabad), swanky shopping malls and dazzling showrooms signalling changing lifestyles in urban U.P. But nearly 78% of U.P.’s population lives in rural areas, and this sizeable rural majority has not fared well as the Central and State governments have failed to address their needs. The deepening distress in the agricultural sector has hardly been addressed. Nor has the problem of stray cattle, which is damaging crops in the rural areas, been addressed.
There is much talk about government schemes which have benefited some people. However, differential access to government schemes such as toilets, gas connections and loans to build homes was highlighted in several conversations in central U.P., and this has contributed to growing anger, particularly among Dalits and Muslims, who feel that they’ve been left out. We asked a group of women in Faizabad if they supported Mr. Modi. They said they did, but not with a certainty that withstood further probing. Soon enough they admitted that they said so out of fear and would not vote for him because his government had not delivered on promises, especially employment opportunities essential for their material well-being.
