Mukund Patel
CHICAGO, Sep 10: An Indian Origin Ph.D. Assistant Professor in Rochester Institute of Technology, New York, Dr Nishant Malik, has developed a mathematical method that shows how shifting monsoon patterns- climate change, led to the demise of the Indus Valley Civilization, a Bronze Age civilization.
(This Figure shows the settlements of the Indus Valley Civilization during different phases of its evolution. An Indian Origin Assistant Professor Dr Nishant Malik developed mathematical method that shows climate change likely the rise and fall of the ancient Indus valley civilization.)
In an article recently featured in the journal Chaos, An Interdisciplinary Journal of Nonliner Science, Dr Malik outlined the new technique he developed.
Dr Malik has developed a method to study paleoclimate time series, sets of data that tell us about past climates using indirect observations. For example, by measuring the presence of a particular isotope in stalagmites from a cave in South Asia, scientists were able to develop a record of monsoon rainfall in the region for the past 5700 years. But as Malik noted, studying paleoclimate time series poses several problems that make it challenging to analyze them with mathematical tools typically used to understand climate.
Dr Malik Said, “Usually the data we get when analyzing paleoclimate is a short time series with noise and uncertainty in it. As far as mathematics and climate is concerned the tool we use very often in understanding climate and weather is dynamical systems. But dynamical systems theory is harder to apply to paleoclimate data. This new method can find transitions in the most challengion time series, including paleoclimate, which are short, have some amount of uncertainty and have noise in them”
There are several theories about why the Indus Valley Civilization declined but climate change appears to be the most likely scenario.
His analysis showed there was a major shift in monsoon patterns just before the dawn of this civilization and that the pattern reversed course right before it declined, indicating it was in fact climate change that caused the fall.
Apart from Rochester Main campus, Rochester Institute of Technology has also international campuses in China, Croatia, Dubai, and Kosovo.
About Author:
Dr Malik did his Ph.D work at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research in Germany under the supervision of renowned mathematical physicist Juergen Kurths. He did his BS. MS. from University of Delhi and M. Tech. from University of Hyderabad.
( Photo and Figure Courtesy Credit: Rochester Institute of Technology.)
(Virendra Pandit /Manas Dasgupta)